A risk is often counterintuitive. People cannot comprehend it easily and tend to over or underestimate the odds, both for negative and positive outcomes. The decision is even more difficult when it comes to random opportunities that require a quick, or relatively quick, reaction. It doesn't matter whether it minutes, hours or days - you don't have time to plan. You must act and seize the opportunity or it'll go away.
Life is full of random events. They can lead to a dream job, unexpected friendship, great relationships and many much more minor things. I made spontaneous decisions in many areas of my life, even though I cannot call myself impulsive or careless. These actions, never planned, took me to where am I now. I've never had a detailed plan, or even any plan, on how to achieve my goals. I've never had certain goals either and just have been doing things I'm passionate about and taking random opportunities.
Not having a strategy is also a strategy. The world is chaotic enough and changing too quickly. Plans should be either abstract or easy, otherwise, you'll have to change them all the time. For me, it's much more productive to focus on short-term goals and adapt to the situation, taking random opportunities that I believe will help me to get what I need.